**Ignoring the US election! Bitcoin options traders have set their sights on the $80,000 mark.**
Options traders are increasing their bets that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of $80,000 by the end of November, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election.
Bitcoin options expiring around November 5th, election day, have high implied volatility, and bets tend to be bullish, with the option giving the buyer the right to purchase the cryptocurrency at a higher price.
David Lawant, head of research at cryptocurrency market maker FalconX, said, "I think the market consensus is that Bitcoin could perform well regardless of the election outcome, and our analysis shows that the options activity around the upcoming election exhibits a clear bullish bias."
Republican candidate and former President Trump openly supports cryptocurrencies, to the extent that Bitcoin is seen as a so-called "Trump trade." His Democratic opponent, current Vice President Harris, has pledged to support a regulatory framework for the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration's crackdown on the sector. Non-political factors such as further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as fueling optimism.
Bitcoin hit a historical high of $73,798 in March this year, due to the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States, which drove market demand for the digital currency, but the bull market for Bitcoin has since eased.
At the beginning of this week, the largest cryptocurrency approached $70,000 before retreating. The token has risen about 61% this year.
According to data compiled by Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, the ratio of Bitcoin put options to call options is trending downward at the end of the year, with more traders buying call options than put options.
Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, which provides derivatives such as swaps and options to US digital asset investors, said, "We see traders buying call options near $68,000 and put options near $66,000. In other words, many people are constantly adjusting their positions for further breakthroughs on both ends of Bitcoin. However, there is limited justification for a significant drop in Bitcoin after the US presidential election, so it makes more sense to bet on a rise."
Data shows that open interest in call contracts expiring on November 29th is concentrated around $80,000, with the second most popular strike price at $70,000. Data shows that open interest in call options expiring on December 27th is concentrated around $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike price for call options expiring on November 8th is $75,000.Additionally, the premium of Bitcoin call options over put options is also relatively high. Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, wrote in a report on Monday that, at a higher level, option traders have driven the call option premium for almost all contracts expiring in more than a day.
Lawant stated, "This indicates that investors are using the options market more as a tool to capture potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside risk. For other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, I believe opinions are more divided. There is less consensus in the market on how these alternative cryptocurrencies might perform under different election scenarios."
Lawant noted that, unlike other significant events such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and halving, Bitcoin's volatility tends to be lower before and after elections. However, as Election Day approaches, volatility may change.