Since the end of September, the real estate industry has welcomed a series of policy "combination punches," and currently, the effects of these policies have begun to show. The number of house viewings and visits in some cities has significantly increased, sales volumes have also grown to varying degrees, and the main indicators of the real estate market have noticeably improved.
Industry insiders have stated that the policy "combination punches" of "reducing costs, lowering thresholds, and raising expectations" have effectively boosted market confidence, with the start of "Silver October" performing "beyond expectations." It is expected that whether in Beijing or other hot cities, the real estate market in 2024 is likely to experience a warm winter.
The "combination punches" take the stage as multiple regions optimize and adjust real estate policies. Since the end of September, various departments including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank have intensively deployed a "package" of incremental policies for real estate. First-tier cities have followed suit, adjusting their purchase restrictions, loan limits, and tax policies accordingly. At the same time, more than 10 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) such as Chongqing, Sichuan, Guangdong, Hubei, and Yunnan have introduced provincial-level policy documents to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. Over 50 cities, including Hangzhou, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Rizhao, have also introduced optimization policies for their local real estate markets.
In addition to the new policies in various regions, the central bank has also continuously released positive signals. On October 21, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Offered Rate (LPR) to announce that the LPR for loans with a term of more than five years is 3.6%. It is worth mentioning that this time the five-year term rate was reduced by as much as 25 basis points, which also means that except for some cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the mortgage interest rates in most other cities will drop into the 2s.
Yan Yuejin, Deputy Dean of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that more and more cities are playing the "combination punches" to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the "package" of supporting policies for real estate will be accelerated, effectively releasing market demand, boosting market confidence, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Expectations improve as the benefits of policies gradually emerge. Under the impetus of policies, there are signs of warming in the real estate markets in many places. Taking Chengdu as an example, during the 6-day "Settle in Chengdu in the Golden Autumn" offline exhibition, the total number of housing transactions in the city reached 8,454 units, with a total transaction amount of 13.2 billion yuan. Shanghai, on the weekend of October 19, saw 1,159 transactions, and on October 20, it saw 1,142 transactions, with the online signing volume breaking through a thousand units for two consecutive days.
Han Runji, Deputy General Manager of the Shanghai-Zhejiang Region of Xiangyu Group, said that since the Central Political Bureau meeting proposed to promote the "stop falling and stabilize" of the real estate market, to the intensive introduction of policies in first-tier cities, and then to the continuous optimization and adjustment of real estate measures by localities, the expectations for the real estate market have warmed up significantly, and market confidence has been restored.
Since the new round of real estate policies was introduced in Shanghai on September 29, 2024, the enthusiasm and transaction volume of customers for Xiangyu Real Estate's seven real estate projects in Shanghai have significantly increased. During the National Day holiday, the number of visits and subscriptions at the case site both increased significantly. "From the release of the new policy to October 17, in less than a month, Xiangyu's various projects have received more than 5,000 groups of visiting customers, with 326 new subscriptions. During the 7-day National Day holiday alone, 272 new subscriptions were added, with a transaction amount of 1.26 billion yuan, and the subscription volume was 1.5 times the subscription volume of the entire month of September." Han Runji introduced.Han Runji said that from the perspective of market customers, after the introduction of the new policy, the housing purchase demand of homebuyers has been effectively released, and the decision-making speed of homebuyers has also significantly increased, indicating that the new policy has greatly enhanced the confidence of homebuyers in purchasing property.
Shenzhen also saw two "daylight discs" after the new policy. On October 19, the China Construction Guan Yue project located in the Phoenix City section of Guangming District, Shenzhen, sold out in 90 minutes, with a total of 2047 batches of customers competing for 192 houses. Previously, the 332 housing units of the Shenye Shangcheng Xuefu project located in Longhua District, Shenzhen, were sold out in three and a half hours, with a total sales amount of about 2.6 billion yuan.
Industry insiders said that the new policy has greatly increased the market's heat and confidence, and the transaction rate for the first visit has been greatly improved. According to data from Shenzhen's intermediary Le You Jia, the new policy has driven the transaction conversion rate from 2% to 12%.
In Beijing, the transaction volume has also continued to heat up since the National Day holiday. According to data from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, in the middle and upper旬 of October, the online signing of second-hand residential houses in Beijing has reached 8,296 sets, exceeding the 7,842 sets in the same period in September, and increased by 37.5% compared to the 6,035 sets in the same period in 2023; due to the lag of online signing, the actual transaction volume of second-hand houses has exceeded 17,000 sets, an increase of more than 150% year-on-year; the increase in new residential houses is also close to doubling.
Full of confidence, the fourth quarter is expected to stop falling and stabilize.
Regarding the real estate market, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong recently said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that a series of policies have effectively boosted market confidence. From the market response, the number of house viewings and visits in many cities and projects has increased significantly, and sales volumes have also increased to varying degrees, with the main indicators of real estate showing a clear improvement.
Ni Hong pointed out that in the next step, all departments must work together to play the "combination punch" of policies well, focus on implementation, and allow the effects of these policies to be fully manifested, so that the people can enjoy the dividends of policies. "It can be said that we are full of confidence in the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize."
Yan Yuejin said, "The golden October" started with a hot start, and the real estate market in various places has continuously reported the "good news" of the double increase in visits and transactions, and the golden autumn real estate market has walked out of "gold content."
Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Central Plains Real Estate, said that overall, the determination of the series of policies from the central to the local level has been fully reflected. Whether it is Beijing or other hot cities, there is hope for a warm winter in 2024. Under the influence of policies, it is expected that the real estate market transaction volume will operate at a high level, and the transaction price will be mainly stable.